With the 1.5 billion dollars Powerball jackpot hype, I couldn’t help but to look up what are the odds of taking all that cash home. Well, 1 in 292 million. That’s discouraging and it’s something that is totally out of your control.

On the flip side, data shows that 60% of restaurants fail in the first three years. I’m going to use that number to keep it simple, but feel free to check out the brewpub and microbreweries numbers here. This means that for every 100 breweries that open in the US, 40 still running after 3 a three year period. Well, my odds are around 1 in 3 (roughly) in this case.

I know I can’t start a successful microbrewery with $2 dollars but if I look at the odds; the microbrewery odds beat the lottery odds all day long.

Yes, it takes a ton of planning and long hours working on your business but that would be something that’s under my control. If I put in the hard work, day in and day out, I have a 40% chance of success (and doing something that I love). Versus, if I play the lottery – sit back and wait for the draw, I have less that 0.002% chance of winning the jackpot.

All in all, if you are a home brewer who dreams of opening your own brewery; maybe today is a good time to roll up your sleeves, start sketching a business plan (just like these guys did a few years back), and get brewing! Your aspirations may be more possible than you think! I would take hard work, tons of brewing and a 40% chance of success any day of the week.

Cheers!

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